Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Vivemos num mundo de medo e rumores

Aqui vai o memo que John J. Mack escreveu em 17 de Setembro de 2008 quando ainda era o CEO do Morgan Stanley :

I know all of you are watching our stock price today, and so am I. After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads.

What’s happening out there? It’s very clear to me - we’re in the midst of a market controlled by fear and rumors, and short sellers are driving our stock down. You should know that the Management Committee and I are taking every step possible to stop this irresponsible action in the market. We have talked to Secretary Paulson and the Treasury. We have talked to Chairman Cox and the SEC. We also are communicating aggressively with our long-term shareholders, our counterparties and our clients. I would encourage all of you to communicate with your clients as well - and make sure they know about our strong performance and strong capital position.

(...)

Enfim

Hoje a Standard & Poor's cortou o rate da dívida portuguesa de A+ para A- baseados em ... nada de novo:

  • Fiscal and economic structural weaknesses in our view leave the Republic
    of Portugal in a comparably weak position to address the significant
    deterioration in its public finances and expected lackluster economic
    growth prospects over the medium term.
  • We are lowering our long-term ratings on Portugal to 'A-' from 'A+' and
    the short-term ratings to 'A-2' from 'A-1'.
  • The negative outlook reflects our assessment of the risk of a further
    downgrade should fiscal consolidation fall short of expectations or
    should concerns over government liquidity mount.

Mas onde é que eles estavam na crise de 2007 / 2008?

Aqui:


Não é reparar mas pela % de ratings que, alegadamente, sobem/descem não parece alguém tivesse antecipado a locomotiva que já vinha ao fundo do túnel... desde 2005 dizem alguns.

Bom ... mas será que ninguém põe estes fulaninhos & associados na ordem ... nem que seja marcar-lhes uma consulta no oftalmologista? :-)

Thursday, April 22, 2010

São os números, estúpidos!

De facto vivemos num mundo muito mal frequentado.

Já quase esquecidos do que originou a crise de 2008 / 2009 da qual ainda ressacamos eis que assistimos, impávidos e serenos, a novo saque desta feita às dividas públicas.

Eu recomendo uma visita ao eurostat, em particular à publicação de hoje sobre os défices públicos na UE em 2009 e da qual não resisto a transcrever alguns dados:

In 2009 the largest government deficits in percentage of GDP were recorded by Ireland (-14.3%), Greece (-13.6%) the United Kingdom (-11.5%), Spain (-11.2%), Portugal (-9.4%), Latvia (-9.0%), Lithuania (-8.9%), Romania (-8.3%), France (-7.5%) and Poland (-7.1%).

Twelve Member States had government debt ratios higher than 60% of GDP in 2009: Italy (115.8%), Greece (115.1%), Belgium (96.7%), Hungary (78.3%), France (77.6%), Portugal (76.8%), Germany (73.2%), Malta (69.1%), the United Kingdom (68.1%), Austria (66.5%), Ireland (64.0%) and the Netherlands (60.9%).

Se é certo que estes países "honrosamente classificados à nossa frente" têm um potencial de recuperação muito superior ao do nosso rectângulo amorfo, já grande parte das comparações que se vão fazendo com base nestes mesmos números parecem um pouco sustentadas... porque estes são os números, estúpidos!

Mas alguém está com atenção no barco?